Análisis del crecimiento económico en función del turismo en Chile, periodo 2000-2018
Análisis del crecimiento económico en función del turismo en Chile, periodo 2000-2018
Authors
Chanquey Chanquey, Yenifer
Lagos Jorquera, Natalia
Llancao Torres, Carolina
Lagos Jorquera, Natalia
Llancao Torres, Carolina
Authors
Date
2021
Datos de publicación:
Revista interamericana de ambiente y turismo, Vol.17, N° 1, 34-46, 2021
Keywords
Gastos de turismo internacional - Crecimiento económico - Turismo - Recibos de turismo internacional
Collections
Abstract
El turismo en Chile representa un aporte directo de 3,3% al PIB, y un 7% al empleo, aportando cada vez más a la economía en los últimos años. En la presente investigación se implementará la metodología de Regresión Lineal Múltiple con Mínimos Cuadrados Ordinarios, con el objetivo de determinar cuantitativamente la influencia de turismo en el crecimiento económico de Chile en el periodo de 2000-2018, para ello se realizó un análisis de la relación entre las variables Producto Interno Bruto (PIB), Gastos de Turismo Internacional (GTI) y Recibos de Turismo Internacional (RTI), con datos del Banco Mundial. Los resultados evidencian una significancia de las variables con un coeficiente de determinación R2 ajustado de 56,3%, demostrando que un aumento de 1% en los gastos de turismo, generan un incremento de 1,920% en el PIB por lo cual existe una relación directamente proporcional, por el contrario, un aumento en los recibos de turismo de 1% ocasiona una disminución de 2,482% en el PIB por su relación inversamente proporcional. Asimismo, el modelo presenta una autocorrelación positiva, una heterocedasticidad moderada, normalidad en los datos y no presenta problemas de multicolinealidad, estableciendo que el turismo afecta, pero no significativamente el crecimiento económico de Chile.
Tourism in Chile represents a direct contribution of 3.3% to GDP, and 7% to employment, contributing more and more to the economy in recent years. In this research, the methodology of Multiple Linear Regression with Ordinary Least Squares will be implemented, with the objective of quantitatively determining the influence of tourism on the economic growth of Chile in the period 2000-2018, for this an analysis of the relationship between the variables Gross Domestic Product (GDP), International Tourism Expenditures (GTI) and International Tourism Receipts (RTI), with data from the World Bank. The results show a significance of the variables with an adjusted R2 coefficient of determination of 56.3%, showing that an increase of 1% in tourism expenses generates an increase of 1.920% in GDP, for which there is a direct relationship proportional, on the contrary, an increase in tourism receipts of 1% causes a decrease of 2, 482% in GDP due to its inversely proportional relationship. Likewise, the model presents a positive autocorrelation, a moderate heteroskedasticity, normality in the data and does not present multicollinearity problems, establishing that tourism affects, but not significantly, the economic growth of Chile.
Tourism in Chile represents a direct contribution of 3.3% to GDP, and 7% to employment, contributing more and more to the economy in recent years. In this research, the methodology of Multiple Linear Regression with Ordinary Least Squares will be implemented, with the objective of quantitatively determining the influence of tourism on the economic growth of Chile in the period 2000-2018, for this an analysis of the relationship between the variables Gross Domestic Product (GDP), International Tourism Expenditures (GTI) and International Tourism Receipts (RTI), with data from the World Bank. The results show a significance of the variables with an adjusted R2 coefficient of determination of 56.3%, showing that an increase of 1% in tourism expenses generates an increase of 1.920% in GDP, for which there is a direct relationship proportional, on the contrary, an increase in tourism receipts of 1% causes a decrease of 2, 482% in GDP due to its inversely proportional relationship. Likewise, the model presents a positive autocorrelation, a moderate heteroskedasticity, normality in the data and does not present multicollinearity problems, establishing that tourism affects, but not significantly, the economic growth of Chile.