Combining system thinking and scenario building to visualize strategic futures for agricultural systems: The case of La Araucanía, Chile

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datacite.alternateIdentifier.citationAgricultural Systems, 225, 2025
datacite.alternateIdentifier.doi10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104290
datacite.alternateIdentifier.issn0308-521X
datacite.creatorSanhueza-Aros, Jaime
datacite.creatorPeña-Cortés, Fernando Andrés
datacite.creatorAriza-Álvarez, Amor
datacite.creatorSoria-Lara, Julio A.
datacite.date2025
datacite.rightsRegistro bibliográfico
datacite.subjectAgricultural Sustainability
datacite.subjectCausal Loop Diagrams
datacite.subjectScenarios
datacite.subjectSpatial Planning
datacite.subjectStrategic Territorial Vision
datacite.subjectSystem Thinking
datacite.subjectAlternative Agriculture
datacite.subjectDiagram
datacite.subjectFarming System
datacite.subjectFuture Prospect
datacite.subjectPsychology
datacite.subjectScenario Analysis
datacite.subjectSpatial Planning
datacite.subjectStrategic Approach
datacite.subjectVisualization
datacite.subjectChile
datacite.titleCombining system thinking and scenario building to visualize strategic futures for agricultural systems: The case of La Araucanía, Chile
dc.contributor.authorPEÑA CORTES, FERNANDO ANDRES
dc.date.accessioned2025-10-06T14:21:37Z
dc.date.available2025-10-06T14:21:37Z
dc.description.abstractCONTEXT: Conventional planning approaches at the regional scale are often based on forecasts or citizen consultations that assume the extrapolation of variables or trends, which is insufficient in complex and highly uncertain environments. However, integrating System Thinking and Strategic Foresight can be particularly useful for understanding, imagining, and planning complex territorial systems. OBJECTIVE: This article develops a strategic scenario around the current and future dynamics of the agricultural system of La Araucanía, Chile. METHODS: The method was implemented in two stages: (1) analysis of system dynamics and selection of drivers of change, and (2) elaboration of the strategic scenario involving 14 experts. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The main results show how to integrate drivers of change and feedback and balance loops into the scenario narrative, which significantly improves the effectiveness of the visioning phase by combining systemic thinking techniques. In addition, three relevant methodological issues are identified for further discussion: (1) integration of system thinking and strategic foresight, (2) expert involvement, and (3) future planning of productive systems. SIGNIFICANCE: This study underscores the importance of integrating System Thinking and Strategic Foresight as a relevant option to support the transition towards sustainable productive systems. Integration allows the reorientation of strategies based on data and causal loop analysis. © 2025 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
dc.description.ia_keywordsystem, strategic, thinking, systems, scenario, planning, foresight
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositoriodigital.uct.cl/handle/10925/6706
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherElsevier BV
dc.relationinstname: ANID
dc.relationreponame: Repositorio Digital RI2.0
dc.rights.driverinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/cl/
dc.sourceAgricultural Systems
dc.subject.ia_oecd1nCiencias Naturales
dc.subject.ia_oecd2nMatemáticas y Estadística
dc.subject.ia_oecd3nMatemáticas
dc.type.driverinfo:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.driverhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1
dc.type.openaireinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citationEdition2025
oaire.citationTitleAgricultural Systems
oaire.citationVolume225
oaire.fundingReferenceANID FONDECYT 1221931 (Regular)
oaire.fundingReferenceUniversidad Católica de Temuco Programa Doctorado en Ciencias Agropecuarias
oaire.licenseConditionCopyright © Elsevier Ltd, 2025
oaire.resourceTypeArtículo
oaire.resourceType.enArticle
relation.isAuthorOfPublication257b5d8d-bad9-41d7-9581-b602a920a1c1
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery257b5d8d-bad9-41d7-9581-b602a920a1c1
uct.catalogadorjvu
uct.comunidadRecursos Naturalesen_US
uct.departamentoDepartamento de Ciencias Ambientales
uct.facultadFacultad de Recursos Naturales
uct.indizacionScience Citation Index Expanded - SCIE
uct.indizacionScopus
uct.indizacionScimago
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