Formulation of Urban Growth Scenarios for Middle-Sized Cities Towards Metropolization: The Case of Puerto Montt, Los Lagos Region

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datacite.alternateIdentifier.citationUrban Science, 9 (5), 2025
datacite.alternateIdentifier.doi10.3390/urbansci9050165
datacite.creatorMorales, Mauricio
datacite.creatorMaturana, Francisco
datacite.creatorEscolano, Severino
datacite.creatorPena-Cortes, Fernando
datacite.date2025
datacite.rightsAcceso abierto
datacite.subjectland use change
datacite.subjecturban growth scenario
datacite.subjectmiddle-sized cities
datacite.subjectPLUS model
datacite.titleFormulation of Urban Growth Scenarios for Middle-Sized Cities Towards Metropolization: The Case of Puerto Montt, Los Lagos Region
dc.contributor.authorPEÑA CORTES, FERNANDO ANDRES
dc.date.accessioned2025-10-06T14:22:10Z
dc.date.available2025-10-06T14:22:10Z
dc.description.abstractThis study models changes in land cover and land use in the intermediate city of Puerto Montt, Chile, up to 2050. Three distinct time periods-1988, 2005, and 2020-were used to examine Puerto Montt's urban growth during these years. These periods were described using the Local Climate Zones (LCZ) technique. Urban growth scenarios were simulated using the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model. Using Machine Learning (ML) techniques, this model has been widely utilized to explain how urban growth patterns have evolved based on the dynamics that drive changes in land use and land cover. Three scenarios were developed for this study: Business-As-Usual (BAU) (S1), Urban-Regional Planning (S2), and Conservationist (S3). According to the findings, Puerto Montt is predicted to undergo morphological changes by 2050, shifting from rural areas primarily composed of woods and agricultural land to open, low-density, low-rise areas outside the municipal limits set by the Communal Regulatory Plans. According to this study, Puerto Montt's relative entropy level was high, ranging from 0.87 to 0.96, with a maximum value of 1.00 by 2050. These findings are anticipated to provide planners and decision-makers with further knowledge on the territorial design of upcoming urban areas.
dc.description.ia_keywordland, urban, puerto, montt, were, growth, changes
dc.formatPDF
dc.identifier.issn2413-8851
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositoriodigital.uct.cl/handle/10925/6966
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherMultidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
dc.relationinstname: ANID
dc.relationreponame: Repositorio Digital RI2.0
dc.rights.driverinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.sourceUrban Science
dc.subject.ia_odsODS 11: Ciudades y comunidades sostenibles
dc.subject.ia_oecd1nCiencias Naturales
dc.subject.ia_oecd2nCiencias Biológicas
dc.subject.ia_oecd3nCiencias del Medio Ambiente
dc.type.driverinfo:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.driverhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1
dc.type.openaireinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citationEdition2025
oaire.citationIssue5
oaire.citationTitleUrban Science
oaire.citationVolume9
oaire.fundingReferenceANID FONDECYT 1221931, 1230159 (Regular)
oaire.licenseConditionObra bajo licencia Creative Commons Atribución 4.0 Internacional
oaire.licenseCondition.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
oaire.resourceTypeArtículo
oaire.resourceType.enArticle
relation.isAuthorOfPublication257b5d8d-bad9-41d7-9581-b602a920a1c1
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery257b5d8d-bad9-41d7-9581-b602a920a1c1
uct.catalogadorjvu
uct.comunidadRecursos Naturalesen_US
uct.departamentoDepartamento de Ciencias Ambientales
uct.facultadFacultad de Recursos Naturales
uct.indizacionScopus
uct.indizacionEmerging Sources Citation Index - ESCI
uct.indizacionDOAJ
uct.indizacionCrossRef
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